MSC 37 · Analysis & probability

Dynamical systems & ergodic theory

Poincaré's qualitative theory of the three-body problem: deterministic systems can be unpredictable.

Founded: 1890 — Poincaré's corrected prize memoir on the three-body problem

The claim

No credible dismissal found. No named dismissal, but treated as a narrow celestial-mechanics curiosity by nearly everyone — obscure enough that Stephen Smale rediscovered the same ideas independently in the late 1950s.

What happened

Chaos theory & weather-forecast limits (1963) — Lorenz independently rediscovers sensitive dependence on initial conditions in a weather model — founds the modern predictability-limit theory.

73 years — founding (1890) to Lorenz (1963)

Verdict: Never dismissed, applied anyway.

Confidence: high.